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2022 FTA Revenue Estimating Conference - Presentations

All presentations are in pdf format.

 

Monday, October 24, 2022
Monday Morning General Session
 
presiding: Michael Kaufmann, Oklahoma Tax Commission and FTA Research Chair      

 
Welcome to Pittsburgh  
Secretary C. Daniel Hassell, Pennsylvania Department of Revenue      

 
Macroeconomic Outlook  
Chris Varvares, IHS Markit      

 
Regional Economic Outlook  
Dan White, Moodys Analytics
 [presentation]    

 
 
State Tax Changes and Emerging Trends  
Jared Walczak, Tax Foundation
 [presentation]    

Lunch [with speaker]
 
State & Local Tax Administration: A Long View with Some Suggestions  
Professor Robert Strauss, Carnegie Mellon University
     [papers]

  
Concurrent Sessions

SECTORIAL OUTLOOK
 
moderator: Michael Kaufmann, Oklahoma Tax Commission and FTA Research Chair      

 
Automobile Outlook  
Kim Hill, HWA Analytics
 [presentation]    

 
Housing/Contruction Outlook  
Michael Guckes, Constructconnect
 [presentation]    

  
 
State Tax Reform and Tax Incentive Analysis
 
moderator: Robin J. Anderson, Iowa Department of Revenue      

 
Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tax Incentives Without ROI  
Michaela Miller, Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office
 [presentation]    

 
Corporate Tax Reform in Pennsylvania  
Amy Gill, Pennsylvania Department of Revenue
 [presentation]    

 
Preliminary Investigations into the Effects of Combined Reporting in New Jersey's Corporation Business Tax  
James Green-Armytage and William Irving, New Jersey Department of Treasury
 [presentation]    

 
 
      
Tuesday, October 25, 2022
FTA-NTA Joint Session-Innovative Uses of Tax Data
 
moderator: Michael Kaufmann, Oklahoma Tax Commission and FTA Research Chair      

 
Synthetic Individual Income Tax Data  
Leonard Burman, Tax Policy Center
 [presentation]    

 
Tax Filer Demographics and Migration Analyses  
Laura Braunstein and Carolyn Thomas, Colorado Dept. of Revenue
 [presentation]    

 
Linking Tax Administrative Data with State Social Services Data  
Evan White, California Policy Lab at UC Berkeley
 [presentation]    

 
 
discussant: Eric Willette, Minnesota Department of Revenue      

 
Concurrent Sessions

Back-Casting and Forecasting Capital Gains Realization
 
 
moderator: Ed McLenaghan, North Carolina Office of State Budget & Management
 [presentation]    

 
Panel:    

Joshua Goldstein and Courtney Adrian, New York City Office of Management & Budget      
  
Norton Francis, District of Columbia Office of Revenue Analysis      
  
Ralph Franklin, Montana Office of Budget and Program Planning      

Michael Allen, Maine Revenue Services      

 
 
Pass Through Entity Tax Workarounds
 
 
moderator: Steven Giachetti, New York City Office of the Comptroller
 [presentation]    

 
Panel:  
        
Michael Galliher, Connecticut Department of Revenue Services
 [presentation]    

Zach Petersen, Wisconsin Department of Revenue
 [presentation]    

William Irving, New Jersey Department of Treasury
 [presentation]    

 
 
SOLUTION SERIES I
 
REMI
How REMI Tax-PI and SEI Evaluate the Economic, Socioeconomic, and Fiscal Impacts of Policy
 
Alejandro Madrigal and Peter Evangelakis, REMI

In this presentation, REMI will demonstrate Tax-PI, a user-friendly and comprehensive dynamic regional macroeconomic, demographic, and fiscal forecasting and impact analysis tool. The complementary Socioeconomic Indicators (SEI) module will also be discussed, which provides detailed insights into the impacts on sub-populations by income level, race/ethnicity, gender, education, and age. REMI will highlight key features and results and will be happy to address any questions.      

 
     
SOLUTION SERIES II
 
Moody's Analytics
Shock Value: Evaluating Near-term Shocks As Revenue Forecasters
 
Emily Mandel, Moodys Analytics

In this session Emily Mandel from Moody's Analytics will discuss the challenges of evaluating the revenue implications of a near-term economic shock, and ways those challenges can be met using Moody's Scenario Studio Platform.

As part of the discussion, Emily will walk through relevant case-studies within the current economic environment including:
- Hurricane Ian
- OPEC+ Production Cuts
- A Potential Housing Crash      

 
 

Forecasters Forum
 
moderator: Joshua Goldstein, New York City Office of Management & Budget      

Panel:  
     

Greg Harkenrider, Kentucky Office of State Budget Director
 [presentation]    

Shane Sanders, Pennsylvania Department of Revenue
 [presentation]    

Hoa Phu Tran, Nebraska Department of Revenue
 [presentation]    

Open Discussion  
Conference participants will have the ability to discuss some of the economic/modeling techniques they use for their forecasts      

  
 
Tax Policy in a High Inflation Environment
 
moderator: Peter Evangelaki, REMI      
 
Panel:  
 
Seth Colby, Hawaii Department of Taxation
 [presentation]    
  
Geng Yi, D.C. Office of Revenue Analysis
 [presentation]    
  
Dan Stickel, Alaska Department of Revenue
 [presentation]    


 
SOLUTION SERIES III
 
Chainbridge Software
The Ins and Outs of Incidence: Multitax Incidence Analysis in a Microsimulation Environment
 
Eric Cook, Chainbridge Software

The concept of state and local tax incidence is significant. Who actually bears the burden of the states taxes? Is the states tax system relatively progressive or regressive? Is the tax ultimately paid by consumers, owners of capital, or workers?

Given the complexity and interconnectivity of a states economic market, a single business tax causes ripple effects that shift the incidence of that tax to owners of capital, consumers, or laborers in that state and elsewhere. As part of the incidence analysis, it is necessary to distribute those business taxes to resident households so that the distribution of the tax by income class can be computed.

Eric will discuss both the theoretical approach and practical procedures for:
  • Determining the initial tax imposition of various tax types,
  • Determining the effects of tax shifting,
  • Allocating business taxes to nonresidents, and
  • The Suits Index

 [presentation]    

   
Wednesday, October 26, 2022
Wednesday Morning General Session
 
presiding: Michael Kaufmann, Oklahoma Tax Commission and FTA Research Chair      
  


 

 

 

Photos courtesy of VisitPITTSBURGH (https://www.visitpittsburgh.com/) and the Doubletree by Hilton Hotel Downtown.